Altman Z-score

The Altman Z-Score is a quantitative balance-sheet method of determining a company’s financial health. “Safe” companies, i.e. companies that have a low probability of bankruptcy, have an Altman Z-Score greater than 3.0.The Altman Z-Score is a measure of a company’s health and likelihood of bankruptcy. Several key ratios are used in the formulation of an Altman Z-Score Value.The Z-score formula for predicting bankruptcy was published in 1968 by Edward I. Altman, who was, at the time, an Assistant Professor of Finance at New York University. The formula may be used to predict the probability that a firm will go into bankruptcy within two years. Z-scores are used to predict corporate defaults and an easy-to-calculate control measure for the financial distress status of companies in academic studies. The Z-score uses multiple corporate income and balance sheet values to measure the financial health of a company.The Z-score is a linear combination of four or five common business ratios, weighted by coefficients. The coefficients were estimated by identifying a set of firms which had declared bankruptcy and then collecting a matched sample of firms which had survived, with matching by industry and approximate size (assets).Altman applied the statistical method of discriminant analysis to a dataset of publicly held manufacturers. The estimation was originally based on data from publicly held manufacturers, but has since been re-estimated based on other datasets for private manufacturing, non-manufacturing and service companies.Generally speaking, the lower the score, the higher the odds of bankruptcy. Companies with Z-Scores above 3 are considered to be healthy and, therefore, unlikely to enter bankruptcy. The Z-Score model is the 1960′s brainchild of Professor Edward Altman of NYU.For Public Companies, the Model is calculated as follows: Z = 1.2*X1 + 1.4*X2 + 3.3*X3 + 0.6*X4 + 1.0*X5.There are 5 variables: X1 = (Working Capital/Total Assets). X2 = (Retained Earnings/Total Assets). X3 = (EBITDA/Total Assets). X4 = (Market Value of Equity/Total Liabilities). X5 = (Net Sales/Total Assets).